We've all heard this idiom in the past, "the writing is on the wall." The basic meaning for an organization is that it is clear to many, that they will fail, or be unable to continue in the future.
There is no better pictorial explanation of this idiom than the pictures below. I just received my 2009 - 2010 Annapolis - Anne Arundel County Yellow Book today, and as you can see, it's about a third smaller than the 2007 - 2008 version. That's a pretty significant drop in page count, and revenue, in just two years.
If they're still delivering it two years from now, I'll expect another significant drop in pages. At the rate they're going I don't expect that they'll be around for their Centennial celebration in 2030.
Richard Weisser posted about this subject recently, musing about whether Real Estate Brokerages are destined to suffer the same fate as the Railroads.
A lot of industries are undergoing turmoil these days, including real estate. The things that worked in the past may still work, but at a much lower rate. Newspaper advertising for real estate is becoming anemic and soon will have to be discontinued entirely by the paper. It's just the economy of scale. At some point it just becomes too expensive to continue printing for limited returns.
I actually worked for Verizon Yellow Pages before I retired in 1997. At that time the internet was here, but there was little talk by the strategists that print organizations would ever be replaced. Back then they were cocky, and could afford to be, it was a very profitable business and all they saw was continued growth. I'd be willing to bet that that talk has changed quite a bit in the past few years.
I won't say good riddance when it's gone, because as good as the internet is today, the local aspect of a Yellow Page book is still unsurpassed. That too, will change someday.
It's impossible to predict the future with any degree of accuracy. All we can do is adapt as quickly as possible to new circumstances in our industry. If not, a third of us will be gone in the next couple of years too. Just like the missing pages from the Yellow Book.
Richard Iarossi, REALTOR®
Long and Foster® Real Estate, Inc.
Crofton, MD 21114
410-451-6255 Office
443-995-9595 Cell
Web: http://www.RichSellsHomes.com
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Annapolis MD Real Estate Specialist
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Rich Iarossi is a full time licensed REALTOR®, working in Crofton, MD. My coverage areas are: Anne Arundel, Prince George’s, Howard, Calvert, Queen Anne, and Baltimore City and County. I specialize in residential real estate, working with both buyers and sellers. Use the registration free search on my website at www.RichSellsHomes.com. If you’re not already working with a REALTOR®...I can help. Call me at 443-995-9595 (Cell) or 410-451-6255 (Office).
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Rich, it is a sad reality. I can't remember the last time I advertised a listing in the newspaper. I also rarely use the telephone book as without my reading glasses, I can't see the damn thing and I never know where my glasses are!
Rich...
PC magazine sent me a notice that there will be no more print editions ... wow, this is happening FAST> Thanks for the mention!
I remember back in the late '80's, early 90's that one buzzword was a "paperless" work environment. So, it hasn't just happened in the last few years. It's been coming for a while while the print media has been trying to hang on. There are many home inspectors who never provide a printed cpoy of the home inspection anymore.
I think part of the situation is as Calvin described, going paperless. The other part, I would guessestimate, 60%, is, each year another segment of the population becomes of age and with them comes the technology skills they have learned in school. We learned to look up things in the library or yellow pages or newspaper, I see my 12 yr and 10 yr old online looking up the dictionary online, googling a subject, researching online for homework. Think about the coming generations and the knowledge at their fingertips we didn't have. Oh think back before Al Gore thought to invent the Internet. :))
It looks like the Internet is fast putting the print media out of business. I find print advertising to have a zero return. In the future, the online Yellow Pages will have to change their ad slogan to "Let your fingers do the surfing."
Poor Al Gore! Will he never live that down? Lol! My kids use the online dictionary too and I love my real dictionary!
I'm surprised anyone one bother with the yellow pages anymore. There may be a few "older" folks who aren't connected to the internet who may rely on them but I agree that their demise is eminent. Just think of how much space will be saved in landfills when they are gone!
Interesting pictures and thoughts. We are in for some major changes. While the Yellow Pages slim down, the Internet grows!
I noticed this in the most recent CRS directory, it was a lot lighter this year.
Not sure if it was agents leaving the business or not renewing, but either way, things are indeed changing.
OUr Yellow pages is thinner too. I just dump mine in the recycle bin when I get it. I look up everything online. I have finally stopped advertising in print magazines, it has been slow and painful. I might do it once in awhile? Not sure?
I haven't looked at the Yellow Pages in years, and I do suspect that publication will go the way of the old print MLS books from earlier in my career - i.e., totally replaced by the Internet.
Wow, Rich I never looked at the yellow book as gauge on the US market but I can see your point, Thank-you!!!
Rich, I am of an age that should be using the real dictionary and the yellow pages. I have both but couldn't tell you the last time I used either. I usually just recycle the yellow pages, sorry, but if I need a business I go online. I keep the white pages for my bank business...it's helpful to check out where people moved to. Dictionary...on line all the time. I feel sorry for those who depend on these print outlets...pretty soon only the libraries will have them, if they are lucky!
Rich,
I just looked at my Annapolis Yellowbooks - the same ones of which you show the picture - and where the older one has residences in the white pages, the newer one only has businesses. There isn't much of a difference in the number of advertising pages.
Your overall theory may be fine, but the example doesn't illustrate what you thought it did.
For what it's worth, my theory on changes in phone book usage is that if it's going down, it isn't by as much as people think. Let me modify that - for straight lookups of a phone number it may be moving to online lookups, but for shopping lookups I suspect it's not changing much. I came to this conclusion when I realized it's darn near impossible to compare what several roofers say about themselves online compared to opening a book with a bunch on the page.
Even before always-on internet connections I only picked up a phone book occassionally, but now I'm online every day, albeit mostly for things that I'd have never gone to the phone book for. I think it skews the perception that we use the phone book less.