The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective

Headlines are saying home prices are starting to dip in some markets. And if you’re beginning to second guess your plans based on what you’re hearing in the media, here’s what you need to know.

It’s true that a few metros are seeing slight price drops. But don’t let that overshadow this simple truth. Home values almost always go up over time (see graph below):

While everyone remembers what happened around the housing crash of 2008, that was the exception – not the rule. It hadn’t happened before, and hasn’t since. There were many market dynamics that were drastically different back then, too. From relaxed lending standards to a lack of homeowner equity, and even a large oversupply of homes, it was very different from where the national housing market is today. So, every headline about prices slowing down, normalizing, or even dipping doesn’t need to trigger fear that another big crash is coming.

Here’s something that explains why short-term dips usually aren’t a long-term deal-breaker.

What’s the Five-Year Rule?

In real estate, you might hear talk about the five-year rule. The idea is that if you plan to own your home for at least five years, short-term dips in prices usually don’t hurt you much. That’s because home values almost always go up in the long run. Even if prices drop a bit for a year or two, they tend to bounce back (and then some) over time.

Take it from Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub:

“. . . there’s the ‘five-year rule of thumb’ in real estate—which suggests that most buyers can buffer themselves from mild short-term declines if they plan to own a property for at least that amount of time.”

What’s Happening in Today’s Market?

Here’s something else to put your mind at ease. Right now, most housing markets are still seeing home prices rise – just not as fast as they were a few years ago.

But in the major metros where prices are starting to cool off a little (the red bars in the graph below), the average drop is only about -2.9% since April 2024. That’s not a major decline like we saw back in 2008.

And when you look at the graph below, it’s clear that prices in most of those markets are up significantly compared to where they were five years ago (the blue bars). So, those homeowners are still ahead if they’ve been in their house for a few years or more (see graph below):

The Big Picture

Over the past 5 years, home prices have risen a staggering 55%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). So, a small short-term dip isn’t a significant loss. Even if your city is one where they’re down 2% or so, you’re still up far more than that.

And if you break those 5-year gains down even further, using data from the FHFA, you’ll see home values are up in every single state over the last five years (see map below):

That’s why it’s important not to stress too much about what’s happening this month, or even this year. If you’re in it for the long haul (and most homeowners are) your home is likely to grow in value over time.

Bottom Line

Yes, prices can shift in the short term. But history shows that home values almost always go up – especially if you live there for at least five years. So, whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, remember the five-year rule, and take comfort in the long view.

When you think about where you want to be in five years, how does owning a home fit into that picture?

Let’s connect to get you there.

Richard Iarossi, REALTOR®
Coldwell Banker Realty
1300 Main Chapel Way, Gambrills, MD 21054
443.995.9595 Cell
410.721.0103 Office
eMail: rich@richsellshomes.com
Web: https://richsellshomes.com

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If you’re a first-time homebuyer, you might feel like the odds are stacked against you in today’s market. But there are resources and programs out there that can help – if you know where to look. And one thing that can make homeownership easier to achieve? An FHA home loan.

They’re designed to help you overcome some of the biggest financial hurdles in the homebuying process – and that’s why so many first-timers are using them to make their purchase.

Whether you’re dreaming of ditching rent, planting roots, or just wanting a place that’s truly yours, an FHA home loan could be the path that gets you there sooner than you think.

Buying Your First Home Probably Doesn’t Feel Easy Right Now

While the motivation to buy a home is still there for many people, affordability is a real challenge today. According to a survey from 1000WATT, potential first-time buyers say their top two concerns are saving enough for their down payment and making the monthly mortgage payments work at today’s home prices and mortgage rates (see graph below):

That’s Where FHA Loans Come In

FHA loans help many first-time buyers overcome these challenges.

In fact, according to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the average first-time buyer using an FHA loan puts down just $16,000. That’s a big difference from the $77,000 they’re putting down with the typical conventional mortgage (see graph below):

Essentially, buyers who use an FHA loan may not have to come up with as much cash up front. But the perks don’t stop there. You may also be able to pay less monthly, too.

That’s because, a lot of the time, the mortgage rate on FHA loans can be lower. Bankrate says:

“FHA loan rates are competitive with, and often slightly lower than, rates for conventional loans.”

So, if you’re thinking about buying your first place, an FHA loan may be worth exploring.

Because of the potential for lower down payment requirements and maybe even a lower mortgage rate, it could help with the two most common hurdles first-time buyers face today – saving enough money upfront and affording the monthly payment.

A trusted lender can walk you through the details, compare your options, and help you figure out what loan type makes the most sense for your situation.

Bottom Line

With the right loan and the right guidance, homeownership may be more achievable than you think.

Do you want to talk more about your options? A trusted lender is there to he.

Richard Iarossi, REALTOR
Coldwell Banker Realty
1300 Main Chapel Way, Gambrills, MD 21054
443.995.9595 Cell
410.721.0103 Office
eMail: rich@richsellshomes.com
Web: https://richsellshomes.com

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Understanding Today’s Mortgage Rates: Is 3% Coming Back?

A lot of buyers are pressing pause on their plans these days, holding out hope that mortgage rates will come down – maybe even back to the historic-low 3% from a few years ago. But here’s the thing: those rates were never meant to last. They were a short-term response to a very specific moment in time. And as the market finds its footing again, it’s time to reset expectations.

Back in 2020 and 2021, 3% mortgage rates gave buyers a serious boost: more affordability, more buying power, and more opportunity. But those rates were a result of emergency economic policies during the height of a global pandemic. Now that the economy is in a different place, we’re seeing mortgage rates in the high 6% to low 7% range.

And while experts currently project a slight easing in the months ahead, most industry leaders agree: rates are not going back to 3%.

Instead, many forecasts suggest mortgage rates will settle in the mid-6% range by the end of the year, pending any major economic shifts. As Kara Ng, Senior Economist at Zillow, says:

“While Zillow expects mortgage rates to end the year near mid-6%, barring any unforeseen shocks, that path might be bumpy.”

What Buyers Should Know

Basically, waiting for 3% rates might mean waiting longer than you’d expect – and missing out along the way. Instead of putting off homebuying indefinitely, make a plan to get there and focus on what you can control: your budget, your credit, and working with a trusted professional who can explain exactly what’s happening in the current market – and how to navigate it.

Your local real estate agent and a trusted lender make all the difference in this process. The experts have insights into down payment assistance programs, alternative financing options, negotiation strategies, and overall – the experience you need on your side to understand creative ways that will make your plans work.

And here’s the biggest thing to keep in mind. Since rates are projected to ease slightly later this year, if that happens, it could bring some more buyers back into the market. Acting now gives you a head start, especially with more homes on the market than we’ve seen in years.

Think about it: if mortgage rates do come down, what do you think everyone else is going to do? That’s right – they’ll jump back in too.

Getting ahead of that rush could put you in a stronger position to find the right home with less competition. Realtor.com sums it up well:

“Staying out of the market in hopes of a rate drop that never comes can lead to missed opportunities . . . Rising home prices, rent increases, and inflation might outpace any future savings on interest. And if rates do fall sharply again, buyers could face an entirely different challenge: surging competition.”

Bottom Line

Those 3% rates everyone remembers from a few years ago were the exception, not the rule.

Now that they’re settling into new territory, it’s a good time to adjust your expectations and learn more about where things are heading as this market shifts.

A local real estate agent and a trusted lender will be your best resources, always keeping you up-to-date and informed, so you can make sense of your options and build a game plan that works for you.

You Finally Have More Options for Your Move

Some Highlights

• If you put your home search on hold because you couldn’t find anything you liked in your budget, it’s time to try again. ​
• There’s a much wider selection of homes for sale, with more fresh listings hitting the market each month.
• With more options come more possibilities. Let’s connect if you want to see what’s available in our area.​

Richard Iarossi, REALTOR®
Coldwell Banker Realty
1300 Main Chapel Way, Gambrills, MD 21054
443.995.9595 Cell
410.721.0103 Office
eMail: rich@richsellshomes.com
Web: richsellshomes.com

Should I Buy a Home Now or Wait?

At some point, you’ve probably heard the saying: “Yesterday was the best time to buy a home, but the next best time is today.”

That’s because homeownership is about the long game – and home prices typically rise over time. So, while you may be holding out for prices to fall or rates to improve, you should know that trying to time the market rarely works.

Here’s what most buyers don’t always think about: the longer you wait, the more buying could cost you. And you deserve to understand why.

Forecasts Say Prices Will Keep Climbing

Each quarter, over 100 housing market experts weigh in for the Home Price Expectations Survey from Fannie Mae, and they consistently agree on one thing: nationally, home prices are expected to rise through at least 2029.

Yes, the sharp price increases are behind us, but experts project a steady, healthy, and sustainable increase of 3-4% per year going forward. And while this will vary by local market from year to year, the good news is, this is a much more normal pace – a welcome sign for the housing market and hopeful buyers (see graph below):

And even in markets experiencing more modest price growth or slight short-term declines, the long game of homeownership wins over time.

So, here’s what to keep in mind:

• Next year’s home prices will be higher than this year’s. The longer you wait, the more the purchase price will go up.
• Waiting for the perfect mortgage rate or a price drop may backfire. Even if rates dip slightly, projected home price growth could still make waiting more expensive overall.
• Buying now means building equity sooner. When you play the long game of homeownership, your equity rewards you over time.

What You’ll Miss Out On

Let’s put real numbers into this equation, because it adds up quickly. Based on those expert projections, if you bought a typical $400,000 home in 2025, it could gain nearly $80,000 in value by 2030 (see graph below):

That’s a serious boost to your future wealth – and why your friends and family who already bought a home are so glad they did. Time in the market matters.

So, the question isn’t: should I wait? It’s really: can I afford to buy now? Because if you can stretch a little or you’re willing to buy something a bit smaller just to get your foot in the door, this is why it’ll be worth it.

Yes, today’s housing market has challenges, but there are ways to make it work, like exploring different neighborhoods, asking your lender about alternative financing, or tapping into down payment assistance programs.

The key is making a move when it makes sense for you, rather than waiting for a perfect scenario that may never arrive.

Bottom Line

Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market.

If you’re debating whether to buy now or wait, remember this: real estate rewards those who get in the market, not those who try to time it perfectly.

Want to take a look at what’s happening with prices in our local area? Whether you’re ready to buy now or just exploring your options, having a plan in place can set you up for long-term success.

Richard Iarossi, REALTOR®
Coldwell Banker Realty
1300 Main Chapel Way, Gambrills, MD 21054
443.995.9595 Cell
410.721.0103 Office
email: rich@richsellshomes.com
website: richsellshomes.com